New York Yankees at Seattle Mariners, picks and predictions

New York Yankees at Seattle Mariners Live Match.

The New York Yankees (70-39) and Seattle Mariners (59-51) meet Monday for the opening contest of a 3-game series. First pitch from T-Mobile Park is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET.

Season series: Mariners lead series 2-1

The Yankees have lost 5 games in a row, including being swept over the weekend in a 3-game series by the St. Louis Cardinals. New York lost the final 2 contests of a 3-game set at Yankee Stadium Aug. 2-3 against the Mariners prior to the Cards series.

The Mariners split a 4-game set against the Los Angeles Angels over the weekend, getting outscored 15-12. Seattle scored 15 runs in the final 2 games of the series against New York earlier in the week.

RHP Jameson Taillon vs. RHP Logan Gilbert

Taillon (10-2, 3.96 ERA) makes his 22nd start. He has a 1.16 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 113 2/3 IP.

  • Has managed a 4-1 record with a 4.47 ERA and .258 opponent batting average through 46 1/3 IP across 9 road outings.
  • Was trampled for 6 R (5 ER) on 2 H (2 HR) and 4 BB allowed across 4 2/3 IP in a no-decision Tuesday against Seattle.

Gilbert (10-4, 3.09 ERA) makes his 23rd start. He has a 1.18 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 in 128 1/3 IP.

  • Is 4-3 with a 3.19 ERA and 54 K across 53 2/3 IP across 9 home starts.
  • Coughed up 6 ER, 7 H, 3 HR and 4 BB across 5 1/3 IP in a no-decision on the road opposite Taillon Tuesday.

Yankees vs. Mariners prediction

Jameson Taillon will get the start for the Yankees and is coming off a rough outing against these same Mariners in his last start. Taillon allowed six runs (five earned) on two hits — both home runs — and a season-high four walks in 4.2 innings against Seattle six days ago.

That start was another bump in what has been an inconsistent summer for Taillon after such a strong start to the season. The former No. 2 overall pick has pitched to a 5.73 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and a .280 batting average against over his last 11 starts.

Jameson Taillon
Jameson Taillon

The silver lining for Taillon is that, while he has certainly struggled, he also has not benefited from much in the way of good luck. Over his last 11 outings, Taillon’s xFIP — which takes some of the noise out a pitcher’s ERA — sits at 3.91, which isn’t great but does indicate that he has pitched better than his surface-level numbers indicate.

In less than a week, Taillon will take on Logan Gilbert for the second time. And like Taillon, Gilbert’s last start was rough. The 25-year-old right-hander allowed six runs on seven hits, three of which were dingers, and four walks against the Yankees on Aug. 2.

More of those kinds of starts could be coming for Gilbert, whose peripheral numbers and batted ball data suggest he’s been closer to average than good. On the season, Gilbert owns a 3.09 ERA and 1.18 WHIP, but his xFIP sits at 3.80, and his BABIP is only .283 even though he gives up a ton of hard contact.

The market sentiment has soured on the Yankees — and for good reason — but there are some signs that this recent wobble is just as much due to a downturn in fortune than poor form. According to MLB’s expected Win/Loss metric, the Yankees should have about five more wins on their ledger than they actually have, which tells you that this is still an elite team that just hasn’t got the same bounces they did earlier in the season.

Sounds like a recipe to start buying low.

Yankees vs. Mariners pick

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